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শনিবার, ৬ অক্টোবর, ২০১২

The Reference Frame: Climate sensitivities in various papers

Anthony Watts discusses a new paper by M.W. Asten in Climate of the Past that estimates the sensitivity ? warming induced by a doubling of CO₂ in the atmosphere ? as 1.1 ? 0.4 ?C from oxygen-18 in microfossils.

The paper also contains a fun list of values of climate sensitivity estimated in various papers published between 2004 and 2012.

I will sort the table from the "most alarming" median values to the least alarming ones. If a median value isn't listed, I will take the average of the low and high values and write it in brackets instead. The sensitivities are expressed in ?C.

Year	Authors	Med.	Interval	C.L.
2010	Pagani et al.	[8]	7-9	?
2012	Dowsett	[6]	4-8	?
2012	Hansen, Sato with slow feedbacks	6	4-8	66%
2004	Lea	5.2	4.4-6.0	95%
2012	Rohling et al.	3.1	1.7-5	66%
2007	IPCC AR4	3	2-4.5	66%
2011	Annan, Hargreaves	[3]	2-4	95%
2012	Hansen, Sato w/o slow feedbacks	3	2-4	66%
2006	Forest et al.	2.9	2.1-8.9	90%
2010	Kohler et al.	2.4	1.4-5.2	?
2011	Schmittner et al.	2.3	1.7-2.6	66%
2008	Ch?lek, Lohmann	[1.8]	1.3-2.3	95%
2012	Gillett	[1.55]	1.3-1.8	?
2012	Lewis	1.3	0.8-2.1	90%
2009	Douglas, Christy	1.1	?	?
2012	Asten	1.1	0.7-1.5	66%
2011	Lindzen, Choi	0.7	0.5-1.3	95%

Note that the median value of the median values is at those 3 ?C. At the top, you see some insane articles claiming that the climate sensitivity may be as high as 9 degrees Celsius. This is clearly incompatible with basic observations we can make. If those figures were true, we would already see a warming by 4 ?C plus minus a relatively small "noise" relatively to the "pre-industrial era".

While Hansen and Sato belong among the nuttiest people, I think that their idea to quote the figures "without slow feedbacks" and "with slow feedbacks" separately may be rather good. However, I think that with the slow feedbacks, the sensitivity will be even lower because the long-term feedbacks are mostly negative.

You should also realize that if only 66% confidence intervals (around 1 sigma, but 1 sigma is really 68%) are listed, the 95% confidence intervals (2 sigma) are approximately 2 times wider, and vice versa (half the width).

Asten ? the new paper ? and especially Lindzen and Choi are not only winners when it comes to the sensible low figures. They also have the narrowest interval i.e. the "most accurate calculation": the width of their 95% C.L. (or 66% for Asten) intervals is just 0.8 ?C. This accuracy claimed by Lindzen and Choi should be another reason why people should try to focus on their methods and refine them.

The 2006 paper by Forest et al. is on the opposite side of this spectrum: they quote the interval 2.1-8.9 ?C and it is only a 90% interval so the width of their 95% interval would be around 10 ?C. Those "super high allowed values" are due to some unreasonably high prior probability for these "super high values".

It's also interesting to notice that the results are "mostly" incompatible with each other. Most of the pairs of papers you may pick in the list mention intervals that don't even overlap! ;-) This is particularly clear if you compare e.g. Pagani et al. which say it's 7-9 ?C with Lindzen and Choi who say it is 0.5-1.3 ?C.

People who believe in superstitions such as "consensus" could try to build on the average or median of the figures above. But it's like measuring the length of the nose of Emperor of China whom no one has seen ? see Feynman's story. You may repeat a totally wrong values many times and affect the "global average" (or the odds) ? much like the MIT roulette players from the picture above. It's much more sensible to carefully look which of the papers are more likely to do a good, accurate, and impartial job in their estimates. Well, it's mostly the papers near the bottom of the list above.

Source: http://motls.blogspot.com/2012/10/climate-sensitivities-in-various-papers.html

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East Africa Job Board::Free jobs for all in Kenya,Tanzania,Uganda ...

HelpAge International (HelpAge) is a global network of not-for-profit organisations with a vision of a world where older people fulfill their potential to lead active, dignified, healthy and secure lives.?

Accountant ? Grants and Contracts
? Department:?Finance & Administration? Location:?Nairobi, Kenya? Responsible To:?Regional Finance Director
? Relations with Others:?Close working relationship with Project Managers, and finance staff of affiliates and partners
? Purpose:?Responsible for budgeting, financial accounting and reporting of assigned grants and donor projects in the EWCARDC and providing financial support and training to affiliates and implementing partners
? 1.1 Grant and Contract Management

Prepare and submit to Regional Finance Director interim and final donor financial reports for review at least one week before the due date
Prepare and circulate monthly donor and HtA monitoring (expense vs budget) report to programme managers by 22nd day of the month for assigned project codes
Promptly follow-up and make adjustments to monthly and interim donor reports based on feedback from the program managers.
Review monthly donor reports with the relevant managers and point out areas with financial risks in line with donor conditions for the managers to take proactive corrective action.
Assist project managers with budget re-alignment and other budgetary issues
Ensure expenses are charged to correct project and budget lines
Receive, review and correct monthly returns from implementing partners for assigned projects and prepare for submission to UK office by 7th day of each month
To assist in getting monthly cash flow requirements from implementing partners and project managers and forwarding this to the Accountant - Secretariat for consolidation and forwarding to UK Secretariat.
Keeping a file for each project and filing all returns and other correspondence on file and ensuring security and confidentiality of the documents in line with HelpAge policy on document retention, retrieval and archiving.
Periodically visit partners, Lodwar office and review their financial and administrative policies and procedures, identify shortcomings and train partners in such areas.
Implement financial and administrative policies as laid down in the Finance and Administration Manuals in use.

Train and assist project managers in proposal budget preparation for various donors
Train and assist project managers in budget re-aligmnet and review
Train and assist project managers in budget phasing and preparation of Detailed Budget Sheet for SUN system.
Assist in the preparation of the EWCARDC annual and mid-year financial review (MYFR) budgets

Assist Accountant ? Secretariat on demand or in his/her absence

Other Features of the Job (Working conditions etc)
? The position is based in Nairobi but with constant travels to the field (Northern Kenya) to assist partners with training and other donor compliance issues.
? Respond to any emergency issue affecting partners and Country Offices at short notice
?

Good working knowledge of computer packages preferably SUN systems, word processing, spreadsheets, power point and database packages.
Ability to work independently and make good routine decisions.
Excellent command of English and Kiswahili both written and oral
Able to travel at short notice
Exposure to and familiarity with the region?s work environment

Minimum of 3 years experience in an NGO multi-cultural setting

Strong interpersonal and communication skills.
Training skills
Performance management skills.

A Bachelor?s degree in accounting and CPA III or equivalent professional level

Firm
Stress tolerance
Building partnership
Attention to detail
Able to work with limited supervision
Proactive and reliable

Desirable:?Experience of taking part or working on a political or awareness raising campaign.

To apply for this position, please send a CV of not more than three pages, and a covering letter, explaining how you meet the criteria for this role to the Regional Human Resource Coordinator on helpage@helpage.co.ke by 19th October, 2012.?

Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted.

Source: http://www.eajobboard.com/2012/10/accountant-grants-and-contracts-at.html

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মঙ্গলবার, ২ অক্টোবর, ২০১২

Official: Hezbollah fighters killed in Syria

A displaced Syrian woman holds her 15-day-old granddaughter at the door of a school where almost 15 families from Homs are living in Souran village, Syria, Monday, Oct. 1, 2012. Activists say government warplanes bombed a town northwest of Aleppo, killing at least 21 people including five children. One report says 30 people were killed in the town, just four miles from the border with Turkey. (AP Photo/Manu Brabo)

The body of a Syrian woman is seen near Izaz's Hospital after being shot by a sniper in the countryside around Izaz, near the Turkish border with Syria, Monday, Oct. 1, 2012. Activists say government warplanes bombed a town northwest of Aleppo, killing at least 21 people including five children. One report says 30 people were killed in the town, just four miles from the border with Turkey. (AP Photo/ Manu Brabo)

In this photo provided by Turkish Prime Minister's Press Service, Palestinian Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal speaks during the congress of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party in Ankara, Turkey, Sunday, Sept. 30, 2012. (AP Photo/Kayhan Ozer)

A displaced Syrian woman and her daughter stand at the door of a school where almost 15 families from Homs are living, in Souran village, Syria, Monday, Oct. 1, 2012. Activists say government warplanes bombed a town northwest of Aleppo, killing at least 21 people including five children. One report says 30 people were killed in the town, just four miles from the border with Turkey. (AP Photo/ Manu Brabo)

BEIRUT (AP) ? A Hezbollah commander and several other fighters from the Lebanese Shiite militant group have been killed in Syria, a senior Lebanese security official and Syrian activists said Tuesday.

Hezbollah, which is backed by both Syria and Iran, is a strong ally of President Bashar Assad's embattled regime and has long been accused by the Syrian opposition of assisting Damascus in its crackdown on the 18-month-old uprising ? a claim the group has repeatedly denied.

The security official said Hezbollah commander Ali Hussein Nassif's body was returned to Lebanon through the Masnaa border crossing on Sunday. Speaking on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, he said several other Hezbollah fighters bodies have been brought back to Lebanon in the past few days.

It was not immediately clear how the militants were killed or whether they had been fighting alongside the Syrian army.

Samer al-Homsi, an activist in Syria's central Homs province, which borders Lebanon, said Nassif was killed Saturday when a roadside bomb hit the car he was riding in near the town of Qusair. He said Nassif and several other people were killed in the blast that also damaged the vehicle.

"His job was to coordinate with Syrian security agencies," al-Homsi said via Skype. He added that the rebels detonated the bomb "without knowing" that the target was a Hezbollah official.

"We knew he was a Hezbollah official after it was announced by the group in Lebanon," he said.

Al-Homsi's account could not be independently verified.

Hezbollah's reputation has suffered severely for siding with the Assad regime even after supporting revolts in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Bahrain. Confirmation that the group's members are fighting alongside the regime in the Syrian civil war would likely stoke resentment against the group among many Syrians and Lebanese who fear the conflict would mutate into a wider regional conflict that would pull in Lebanon because of Hezbollah's involvement.

Lebanon's sectarian tensions have already been worsened by the crisis in Syria, where the overwhelmingly Sunni opposition is struggling to oust a regime dominated by Alawites, an offshoot of Shiite Islam.

Hezbollah's newspaper al-Intiqad said Nassif, who is also known as Abu Abbas, was a Hezbollah commander and was killed "while performing his jihadi duties." It did not say when or where he was killed.

His funeral, which was held Sunday in the eastern town of Budai, near Baalbek in Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley, was attended by top Hezbollah officials including the head of the group's judicial council, Sheik Mohammed Yazbek, and the head of the political bureau, Sheik Ibrahim Amin al-Sayed.

On Tuesday, Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV showed the funerals of at least two other Hezbollah members it said were killed while performing their "jihadi duty."

It said one of the group's members, Zein al-Abideen Mustafa, was buried in his hometown of Baalbek, while another Hezbollah member, Hussein Mohammed Hussein Diab, was buried in his hometown of Ghassaniyeh in southern Lebanon. Both funerals were attended by Hezbollah officials and commanders.

The coffins of the dead were draped with Hezbollah's yellow flags and carried by militants in black uniforms and red berets. Hundreds of people marched in the funeral.

Hezbollah spokesman Ibrahim Moussawi confirmed the deaths but said he had no further information on where or how Nassif was killed. He declined further comment.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/3d281c11a96b4ad082fe88aa0db04305/Article_2012-10-02-Syria/id-c7b63536ab0f43bfbc2237c956ed2f5e

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সোমবার, ১ অক্টোবর, ২০১২

Oprah Winfrey Still Hollywood's Highest-Paid Celebrity

It's been a year since she gave up her self-titled talk show, but for now, Oprah Winfrey, 58, hasn't run out of ways to mint money. On Monday, Forbes magazine awarded Winfrey the top spot on its lists of Hollywood's Highest-Paid Women and Highest-Paid Celebrity... for the fifth year in a row.

Source: http://www.ivillage.com/oprah-winfrey-still-hollywoods-highest-paid-celebrity/1-a-491064?dst=iv%3AiVillage%3Aoprah-winfrey-still-hollywoods-highest-paid-celebrity-491064

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Matt Reeves Confirmed for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

It was only a few weeks ago news hit that Fox was in search of a new director for their sequel to Rise of the Planet of the Apes after director Rupert Wyatt left the project. The studio's shortlist for his replacement was reportedly limited to?Matt Reeves (Cloverfield, Let Me In), Jeff Nichols (Take Shelter), Juan Carlos Fresnadillo (28 Weeks Later, Intruders), and Guillermo del Toro (Hellboy). And while there are some big names in that list, reportedly there was only one front runner all along and he's just signed on the dotted line.

Matt Reeves will direct Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.

Since Fox is full steam ahead on the property, presumably this is pushing aside several of the other high profile films Reeves was attached to, like The Twilight Zone and This Dark Endeavor. And that's fine with us. Reeves has already proven that he can innovate as a director (Cloverfield) and that he can honor original source material (Let Me In), so we certainly share the studio's confidence that he's the right pick to deliver a worthy followup to the surprisingly great Rise when Dawn of the Planet of the Apes hits theaters on May 23, 2014.

But what say you? Will Reeves help or hurt the franchise? Or more importantly, do you even want a sequel?

Source: http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/1925992/news/1925992/

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National Coffee Day 2012: where to find free coffee and more

National Coffee Day 2012 is Saturday, Sept. 29, and coffee purveyors across the country are celebrating. Here's a list of 16 places you can get a free or discounted coffee on National Coffee Day 2012

By Karla Bowsher,?Contributor / September 29, 2012

A bird rests on a coffee cup in the parking lot of Pat's Little Red Barn in Belfair, Wash.in this 2011 file photo. National Coffee Day, celebrated Saturday, Sept. 29, 2012. means one thing to North Americans: a free cup of joe.

Larry Steagall/Kitsap Sun/AP/File

Enlarge

Whether you call it Coffee Day, National Coffee Day, or International Coffee day, this?global ?holiday??means one thing to North Americans: a free cup of joe.

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The Mockery Feminists

Actors Tina Fey and Jon Hamm speak onstage during the 64th Annual Emmy Awards on Sunday in Los Angeles, California.

Tina Fey is one of a new brand of funny feminists

Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images.

In contemplating the rise and fall of various feminist tomes recently, one can?t help wondering if the era of earnest popular feminism is over. Are serious, straight feminist figures less in vogue than the ironic, the funny, the hard-drinking, the wisecracking?

With her memoir Bossypants, in which she recollects a man calling to her when she was 13 ?nice tits,? and her calling back ?suck my dick,? Tina Fey is the prototype of the new kind of feminist figure I am talking about. The wildly successful English columnist Caitlin Moran, with her best-seller, How To Be a Woman, is the most recent example. Moran?s tone is light, her persona, cool, brazen, liking a glass of wine. When an article called ? ?I love my boobs? says Caitlin Moran? runs in a British newspaper, she writes, ?Personally, I don?t have boobs. Not a one. It felt as odd as reading ?I love my STRIPY PREHENSILE LEMUR TAIL,? says Caitlin Moran.?

And when we consider the circus of the media response to Naomi Wolf?s loopy new book, and her radical fall from mainstream popularity, some substantial part of the problem is that she retained the super earnest, self-righteous tone of indignant ?90s feminism, and has not evolved into the wisecracking tough-girl icon that we look for now. (I should be clear that there are still dead-serious feminists full of straightforward old-fashioned indignation, such as Jessica Valenti and Rebecca Traister, but they are not quite popular figureheads as Moran is now and Wolf was in the ?90s.) Of course, it?s true, that the silliness of Wolf?s most recent project had something to do with the derision it met with, but the absolute earnestness of her tone, when say, describing her orgasms, the seriousness with which she took herself, was part of the disconnect between her and her readers. (There were always passages of loopiness and new-age silliness in her books, but she didn?t alienate an earlier generation of readers in quite the same way.)

If you look at the vibrant, chattering feminist blogosphere, which most accurately captures the tenor of popular feminism, the funny, wry, and ironic are ascendant. The tone of Jezebel, and even, to a lesser but still noticeable extent, our own DoubleX, is overbrimming with sarcasm. Take the following pretty typical quote from Jezebel: ?Not many things are quite as tiresome as wide-eyed pro-lifers trying to blow our minds with thought experiments about what may have been had the selfish mother of some awesome person chosen to have an abortion rather than do the noble thing and give birth to their sex punishment. In the Bible, Jesus's mother Mary is supposed to be like 15 and unmarried?what if The Lord were aborted?! (Of course the answer to that is ?Nonsense; God wouldn't make His son as abort-able as normal human babies, plus he'd make sure to impregnate a woman who would be down with carrying Baby God; otherwise, what a dumb plan for a supposedly omnipotent being.?)?

The implicit attitude of this kind of writing is: ?Can you believe these bozos are still acting like this?? The tacit assumption is that we all take for granted a certain set of shared beliefs, and we should mock those few retrograde Neanderthals who do not agree with us. The tone is less urgent and more queenly. It contains the idea that feminism is cool, and that it will mock you like a cool and impressive girl at the lunch table if you are in violation of its principles. The idea is to make fun of your enemies, not preach at them. (This is not, I should add, a wholly new thing. There are historical iterations of this type of feminism in the work of Rebecca West, Mary McCarthy, and Germaine Greer, among others.)

Some will vehemently object that traditional feminism is not humorless, and I agree, for the most part, but what I am talking about is a kind of feminism that employs humor or sarcasm as its medium, with outrage manifesting as mockery, power taking the form of laughing, or sometimes just scoffing. One could argue that these cool, jaded, feminist figures belong to an time that Hanna Rosin has dubbed The End of Men, that only now that women are rising precipitously in economic and professional terms, do we have the luxury to sort of sit back and laugh with a drink, and not shout angrily. (And many will, of course, object that we should still be shouting angrily, and that those who engage in this luxury, these Mockery Feminists, are decadent manifestations of a falsely complacent attitude.)

Whatever you think of this, however, it is clear that the most publically successful feminist forums and figures are funnier than they have been in the past, and that when they are not funny they are trying to be either funny or smartly sarcastic. The new mode assumes that serious, righteous outrage is tactically wrong. Not that sexism does not exist, but that its existence at the moment requires a tougher, wilier, more knowing, and sophisticated stance. Earnest outrage seems outdated, an overreaction of sorts, an almost embarrassing outburst of sincerity.

Whether the new feminism is actually funny is a whole other and more complicated conversation. And whether this mode of humor works in the arduous and largely impossible business of changing the world, or even changing one single person?s mind, remains to be seen, but it has energized and animated a pretty jaded and busy generation or two for a few minutes on the train on the way to work.

Source: http://feeds.slate.com/click.phdo?i=f966dd7e92fed12a407e5ed3d718c1c8

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